Es un hecho que México estará disputando la semifinales en el Preolímpico de Croacia pero, ante la confusión que permea en propios y extraños al deporte ráfaga, se deben aclarar dos cosas: México necesita llegar a la final y ganarla si desea asistir a Tokio 2020, su rival depende del partido de mañana entre Alemania y Rusia, siendo Brasil el primero del grupo B, y a la espera del segundo lugar entre Croacia y Túnez.
Escenario A:
Alemania derrota a Rusia y califica como primero del grupo A, esto dejaría a México como segundo de tal por su diferencial positivo de +2 por lo que México debería medirse ante Brasil.
Escenario B:
Rusia derrota a Alemania por una diferencia de +4 o menos lo que dejaría a los rusos eliminados y México aún en segundo, puesto que Alemania tendría un diferencial de +2 o > a 2 y el criterio de desempate sobre México le daría el primer lugar, de igual manera que este criterio favorece a los aztecas sobre los rusos, puesto que ellos quedarían con un diferencial negativo; de tal forma, Brasil seguiría siendo el rival en semifinales.
Escenario C:
Rusia gana por +11 o más ante la Mannschaft y se adjudica el primer lugar del grupo A, pero esto dejaría con un diferencial negativo a los teutones y brindaría el segundo lugar a los nacionales. Los brazucas se mantendrían como contrincantes.
Escenario D:
El más “complicado” de todos los hipotéticos, es que los rusos derroten a Deutschland por un diferencial de +5 a +10, lo que otorgaría automáticamente el primer lugar a México, mientras que el segundo puede variar; si Rusia gana por +5 o +6, los alemanes pasan por el diferencial que sería de (+1 o 0), pero si Rusia gana por 7 o más, hasta diez de diferencia. serían los de Bazarevich, los que se congratularían con el pase a semis como segundo con un diferencial positivo y con un diferencial negativo para los teutones.
En este caso, México deberá esperar al partido entre Croacia vs Túnez, para saber quién de ellos será su rival en la instancia pre-finalista.
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